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Post by dean Today at 3:43 pm


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Post by dean Today at 8:53 am

cdc says wear masks.. I disagree for the reasons WHO still says.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/cdc-guidance-cloth-face-masks-coronavirus-us-government/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=d2a9b4dfa3-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_04_06_08_13&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-d2a9b4dfa3-90245106

Experts have been divided on the topic of mask wearing over the past week. Some have suggested mass population mask wearing may reduce levels of community transmission considering there is increasing evidence of asymptomatic transmission. However, other experts have expressed concern masks can breed a false sense of security, resulting in wearers relaxing social distancing measures and general hygiene practices.

It is this particular concern that seems to be causing the World Health Organization to hold back from instituting general mask wearing recommendations. Michael Ryan, Chief Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, reiterated this point at the WHO’s most recent press briefing.


“We must preserve medical, surgical and respirator masks for our front-line workers but the idea of using respiratory coverings or mouth coverings to prevent coughing and sneezing projecting disease into the environment or towards others; that's a mechanical process and that in itself is not a bad idea but that doesn't negate the need for hand-washing, it doesn't negate the need for physical distancing, it doesn't negate the need for people to stay at home if there's a stay-at-home order in place,” said Ryan.

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Post by dean Yesterday at 9:51 pm

interesting these college studentas went to cabo and came back and many had corno. and yet the hotel they were in and the airline says no-one reporting being sick.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/04/world/americas/04reuters-health-coronavirus-mexico-springbreak.html?fbclid=IwAR0BuimoZUYRw4d-Kq8-edyMRPpJzRHefjM8gi93Tf392BwozBh8RuUT5qk

At least part of the Texas group stayed at the luxury Pueblo Bonito Los Cabos hotel, two people familiar with the arrangements told Reuters.

So far 49 students among the group from University of Texas at Austin have tested positive for the coronavirus upon their return to the United States, according to the university.

Viva Aerobus said it has followed strict sanitary measures to prevent infection on its routes.

No passengers showed symptoms during the flights to and from Los Cabos, Viva Aerobus added. After the notification from the University of Texas, the airline said it pulled its crew from duty and put them under observation.

None of them have thus far presented symptoms of the coronavirus.

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Post by dean Yesterday at 8:02 pm

this can help and let these people go back to work.

https://www.mobihealthnews.com/news/cellex-becomes-first-company-land-fda-emergency-use-authorization-covid-19-serology-testing

Cellex becomes first company to land FDA Emergency Use Authorization for COVID-19 serology testing
The test was designed to identify specific antibodies in order to detect if a patient has had coronavirus in the past.

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Post by dean Yesterday at 7:31 am

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/coronavirus-what-you-should-know-diy-masks-and-ventilators/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200403&rid=2AD9DA1F4C042FDF5179BAD550EDF419&fbclid=IwAR1LvFS4__SxQ4NrOqXW9caijoU56HNK3R-d-MAtVq-gs7ABcpVTsPu11N8

What you should know about DIY masks and ventilators

Regardless, Davies wrote in a recent summary of her team’s findings that social distancing, hand-washing, and the avoidance of face touching are by far the most effective ways to protect society, adding that masks should be a last resort that is meant to prevent “an unavoidable risk of exposure.” (Here’s how long coronavirus lasts on surfaces and in the air.)


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Post by dean on Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:23 pm

Well seems i got the peak rate date where it would decrease by 30 percent correct from school closures, i am pretty sure I put that on the chart the day schools closed..    17 percent to 12 perrcent is close to 30%.  And appears I was correct about Cabo coming in and being a spoiler for Mexicos numbers as they are appearing to look like usa-spain-italy-NY numbers.       Cabo can be a complete disaster due the nature of the close contact nature and the transient core of its businesses.    We may need to pull out cabo from Mexican numbers to just let us know their efforts are paying off.   Not much you can do when the cabo is tourist 99% economy.    Well they have closed off hotels so Cabo could begin to drop in 2 weeks, but it could be a nasty one till then.     Cabo does not have a large base of real locals born there, many or much of the work force of cabo is transient Mexico people who came because there are decent pay jobs in cabo.     These persons may not have the pride of a town like LaPaz and end up not following the directives at a high enough level.  I think I said this before but cabo alone could be half to equal all of Mexicos numbers that we presently have.  

And the death rates are starting to escalate as I said they would till they hit the 200 to 300 range when the school closing effect will take place to flatten that curve.      

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Post by dean on Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:17 am

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission
on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)


Routes of transmission

COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between
an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not
believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can
be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities.
Fecal shedding has been demonstrated from some patients, and viable virus has been
identified in a limited number of case reports. However, the fecal-oral route does not
appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission; its role and significance for COVID-19
remains to be determined. Viral shedding is discussed in the Technical Findings (Annex C)
My add in China they found a patient had taken a long bus ride maybe 8 hours, the trackers got the bus film and located all the people on the bus and found very few of them were sick, the infected person was in the back of the bus and one person in the middle of the bus isle seat fot sick and only the people close to him tested positive.   So it is not as easily transmitted by air as one would envision.      Also if it was that easy entire planeloads would always be succumbing to flus yet I rarely get sick when flying and no one would fly if it was found it was that easy to be infected.  From this article, it also notes that 78-85% is family spread.

Household transmission
In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in
families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters
and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces.
Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong
Province and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families.
Household transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in
Guangdong estimates the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.

and lastly, when studying the H1N1 it was found that there was a 30% drop in spreading when schools were closed.    So I conclude the following, a person in a house gets it, they may be asymptomatic, the entire family gets it, the person with a job goes to work and co-workers who are in close proximity toch something that person touches, like he hands them a pen, they water cooler button, , coffee pot handle, elevator button.      That person goes home and gets their family sick by door know to home, the child gets infected and is asymptomatic and goes to school and during gym gets hit in the face with a ball and throws it and another catches it and that child thows it and so on so all the kids get it.    They take it home and again the entire family gets it.    mom or dad go to work and it goes and goes.

bus example
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a “safe distance” of one to two metres (three to six and a half feet).
Their work was based on a local outbreak case on January 22 during the peak Lunar New Year travel season. A passenger, known as “A”, boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back.
The passenger already felt sick at that point but it was before China had declared the coronavirus outbreak a national crisis, so “A” did not wear a mask, nor did most of the other passengers or the driver on the 48-seat bus.
Several passengers became infected during the four-hour bus journey.
Several passengers became infected during the four-hour bus journey.
China requires closed circuit television cameras to be installed on all long-distance buses, which provided valuable footage for researchers to reconstruct the spread of the virus on the bus, whose windows were all closed.

Coronavirus and viruses 2367f83c-61fc-11ea-8e9f-2d196083a37c_972x_161511

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Post by dean on Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:03 pm

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cleaning-disinfection.html

Prepare a bleach solution by mixing:
5 tablespoons (1/3rd cup) bleach per gallon of water or
4 teaspoons bleach per quart of water

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Post by dean on Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:48 am


RE: the remembering thing, I actually had a small spray bottle hooked to my pockets as i walked into the stores when I was going out. This always reminded me to wash. Right now I do not go to any stores now that there are the deaths in LaPaz. I am waiting to see the numbers a bit more, my freezer is full i have 30 days supply of everything, and could stretch it to 90 with the rice and beans. I have a bidet so been using less toilet paper than most. And do have some younger people around to do some shopping for me if need be.

Ya as I walked down store isles and forget and touch something I use my spray bottle right then and there. Overkill perhaps. I now use hydrogen peroxide in the carry around spray bottle. I have spray bottles that I have repurposed from cleaning solutions almost in every room with a 2% bleach solution (mixing instructions on cdc site)




good forecasting site

https://newatlas.com/science/interactive-stanford-model-covid19-coronavirus-social-distancing/
Interactive Stanford website models various COVID-19 containment methods


Should you wear a mask to protect from the coronavirus?
SHARE THIS -
COPIED
We talked to a respiratory doctor to make sense of the confusing messaging coming from the Trump administration on whether you should wear a mask to protect you from the coronavirus.
https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/should-you-wear-a-mask-to-protect-from-the-coronavirus-81573957973?cid=eml_mra_20200402




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Post by dean on Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:32 pm

good tracking map though just usa

https://healthweather.us/?mode=Trends

social distancing is the key , tracking movement by cell phone
https://news.yahoo.com/flattening-the-curve-on-coronavirus-what-california-and-washington-can-teach-the-world-130405639.html

Yesterdays numbers not I see why they have gone to stricter measures, a small uptic with the possibility of the easter holiday coming.


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Post by dean on Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:33 am

mexico uses random samples to determine outbreaks.    As we know the same is done in the USA called polling for elections.    It is relatively accurate.  

Coronavirus on the border: Why Mexico has so few cases compared with the U.S.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-mexico-us-border-covid-19/2020/03/30/18ad79b2-7061-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html?fbclid=IwAR09nK8qV07qWJa3L7bDDuldcfGxkDDD2wFpTTAmSrP8NzT6sDaZ9_nz-4g


China giving Mexico supplies and testing kids 50k of them.   appears they have arrived.
https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/coronavirus-mexico-recibe-de-china-50-mil-kits-de-prueba-para-detectar-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3r7pwEJPfJp0ef_edEizbBWFh9f4t0XJ8Hm3Ih0sKs2oW1UqAwYwYDtt0

Here are yesterdays numbers
Coronavirus and viruses 3-3110

Wearing masks can give false safety effect, says WHO
https://www.milenio.com/internacional/europa/uso-de-mascarillas-puede-dar-falso-efecto-de-seguridad-dice-la-oms?fbclid=IwAR0AG9hy9xKjjWwPe991YWM0kim0sgLSxELXozhBVP6DFWFOAdkh8SdbXiE

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Post by dean on Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:17 pm

I put hand washing stations at both of my entrances that are foot-operated, one at the drive-in gate and one at the walk-in gate.     I used a gate spring found at home depot a few dollars and water shut off valve and some wire and tubing.   Come take a look at them.   Very simple.   a few hours each to set up.  


A suggestion, make sure you have a bottle of soap and water mixed in your car, I use a  2 liter soda bottle.    And another for rinsing of just water.    And a towel in the car.  When you get out of your car rinse your hands and door handle and when you get back to your car do the same including the door handle before entering the car.   I keep a change of clothing in the car too, and have had to use it one time.   Keep a mask in the car, just in case you breakdown.

I have bleach spray bottles, use the cdc recomendation which is about 2% or 4tsp per quart. I use the handsprayer for the bleach for countertop surfaces and other areas like fridge door handles. and i only use soap and water on my hands. 4tsp per quart. I have repurposed other spray bottles for this.

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Post by dean on Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:58 am

this is an adjustable, Epidemic Calculator

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2KnZPU0kTOHCAMR9k4paIBlaEYVhkE721YtWmWsn0k9_UxXN4CB6GluFA

new york time data   https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

good newsindicating social distancing works. thanks Canada.
Physical distancing has halved rate of spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/physical-distancing-bc-covid19-coronavirus-1.5512269?fbclid=IwAR384VoYOCEIpuwuOAjZI-zlyleajOdSZGVYlNOq2lyPIRHpif-g3WhuXyw

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Coronavirus and viruses Empty Message for U.S. Citizens: March 31 Virtual Town Hall for U.

Post by dean on Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:28 am

Message for U.S. Citizens: March 31 Virtual Town Hall for U.S. Citizens with Ambassador Landau

Message to U.S. Citizens – U.S. Embassy Mexico City, Mexico (March 27, 2020)

Location:  Mexico

Event:  March 31 Virtual Town Hall for U.S. Citizens with Ambassador Landau


Please join U.S. Ambassador Christopher Landau for a Virtual Town Hall Tuesday, March 31, at 3:30 p.m. as he discusses the most recent Department of State travel advice for U.S. citizens in light of COVID-19 and answers your questions.

Take part by going to the Embassy’s Facebook page to watch the Facebook Live event.

Submit your questions by commenting on the event while it is happening or by sending them in advance to ACSMexicoCity@state.gov using the subject: “Virtual Town Hall” in your email.  We will do our best to answer as many questions as possible.

The U.S. government has no higher priority than the protection of U.S. citizens.  It’s essential that you are well informed and updated.  We look forward to answering your questions and providing you with our most recent travel advice.  In the meantime, you can learn more at the Embassy’s COVID-19 website and by watching this message to U.S. citizens from Ambassador Landau on our website.

Actions to Take:
• Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergenc
• The Department of State has issued a Global Level 4 Health Advisory for COVID-19.  In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who normally reside in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.
• Visit our Embassy webpage on COVID-19 for information on conditions in Mexico.
• Learn about the latest status of consular operations at the Embassy, Consulates, and Consular Agencies.
• Consult the CDC website for the most up-to-date information.
• For the most recent information on what you can do to reduce your risk of contracting COVID-19, please see the CDC’s latest recommendations.
• Visit the COVID-19 crisis page on travel.state.gov for the latest information.
• Check with your airlines, cruise lines, or travel operators regarding any updated information about your travel plans and/or restrictions.
• Visit the Department of Homeland Security’s website on the latest travel restrictions to the United States.
• Check Port of Entry wait times at the U.S. border and visit Customs and Border Protection’s latest updates.
• Call the Mexican Ministry of Health’s COVID-19 information hotline at 800 0044 800 for local information while in Mexico.  English-speaking operators are often, but not always, available.
• Visit the local government COVID-19 websites with advice for the general public and the most recent Ministry of Health notices for updated information.
 
Assistance:
• For Emergency Assistance for U.S. citizens in Mexico, call 55-8526-2561 from Mexico or 1-844-528-6611 from the United States.
• The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City is located at:
Paseo de la Reforma 305
Colonia Cuauhtémoc
06500, Ciudad de México
Phone: +52-55-5080-2000
Fax: +52-55-5080-2005
E-Mail: ACSMexicoCity@state.gov
• State Department – Consular Affairs: 888-407-4747 or 202-501-4444
• Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency.
• Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter.
• Follow the U.S. Embassy in Mexico on Facebook and Twitter.
• Review the Crime and Safety Reports for Mexico.
• Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations.  Review the Traveler’s Checklist.

https://www.facebook.com/mexico.usembassy/

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Post by dean on Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:17 pm

PSA Safe Grocery Shopping in COVID-19 Pandemic – UPDATED!!! www.DrJeffPublicSafety.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps&fbclid=IwAR0_PuT09okRDIz_xZdhEXfzVheQrZjRIS1Hufp3dvOVwySUM7aq6AVsDbI

long one
Dr. David Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City shares information in a Mar. 22 Zoom call with family and friends on empowering and protecting families during the COVID-19 pandemic.  He says absolutely do not go to doctors and hospitals in person if you are sick including high temperture.    ONLY go when you are short of breath. Not short of breath from a long or fast walk, but getting up and heading to the bathroom in your home.

https://vimeo.com/399733860?fbclid=IwAR1UvHa7ji7-3MRdLNITmZ48pKNfQNJUgiqQ06AEidx-e-n3TZcSId8BpUU

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0uyqtJjBnmj2I_yf1KG-Ce5Yp5kj7QfC7VqULLM06vfVfcJjZpR53FVDk

The Tip of the Iceberg: Virologist David Ho (BS '74) Speaks About COVID-19
What should we be doing to limit the spread of this epidemic?
The social distancing and good hygiene strategies have been successfully applied, in South Korea for example, to bring their epidemic down. They're the only other country that has flattened the curve—slowed down the number of new infections to not overwhelm the healthcare system—and gradually brought this epidemic under control. There are many places that have done a pretty good job of not allowing the epidemic to explode, such as Taiwan and Hong Kong. These are places that had quite a bit of experience in fighting SARS, 17 years ago.


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Post by dean on Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:54 pm

Covid-19 positive with 200 guests at a wedding in Los Cabos

https://metropolimx.com/avanza-pandemia-de-coronavirus-en-bcs-1-6-casos-por-dia-en-los-cabos/

Coronavirus pandemic progresses in BCS: 1.6 cases per day! in Los Cabos
https://metropolimx.com/positivo-de-covid-19-convivio-con-200-invitados-en-una-boda-en-los-cabos/


They cancel flights to San José del Cabo, La Paz, Loreto and Cabo San Lucas

https://metropolimx.com/cancelan-vuelos-a-san-jose-del-cabo-la-paz-loreto-y-cabo-san-lucas/


Coronavirus and viruses Cbx10

Coronavirus and viruses 3-2510


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Post by dean on Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:41 am

Community Ambulance Update - Lupita the ambulance driver is isolated due to her husband's health situation, but that does not say that there is no ambulance / emergency service. Behind the delegation in El Sargento is our small base where 3 elements are in charge of the service to attend to any emergency.
We are available for non-COVID-19 related issues. For our health safety we ask that if there is any discomfort that the doctor of the health center can see you before us and can evaluate at the moment. And if it is a situation that merits immediate transfer, it will be done. The new numbers to call in case of need are (Stephanie) 612-137-6580 and (Abdiel) 612-220-3566: Stephanie PriCos

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Post by dean on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:50 am

East Cape Health Center Announcement so many questions are surfacing about COVID-19 so I wanted to help clarify our protocols: IF you develop symptoms of headache, sore throat, dry cough, fever, muscle and joint pain ( more than normal ) let us know and we can advise you clinic: 624-124-8203/emergency: 624-160-1997. We have one room designated for screening anyone with infectious symptoms and we can rule out other infections or viruses with tests in our lab.
If you have traveled Internationally or in the US ( Washington, California or NY ) or have close contact with anyone who has tested positive, we can arrange testing if it is indicated. Just like everywhere in the world, Mexico has the capability to test suspicious cases and treat the symptoms at home. IF hospitalization is indicated Hospital H+ has reassured me they can handle hospitalized patients in regular rooms or ICU.
Please keep my number handy 624-157-0081 and if you have information for me please contact me by email: charlene.wenger@gmail.com

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Post by dean on Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:47 am

For as many as 700,000 Mexicans, coronavirus could be lethal

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/for-as-many-as-700000-coronavirus-could-be-lethal/?fbclid=IwAR11EisY_cjh6Moi-e7aeTDfR8cpSuJKuSfNc7Pjt_8A2UCeEm5jhsdLOus

I agree with him.    

‘Don’t stop going out or take exaggerated measures’: AMLO
'I will tell you when we have to stay at home but not yet'

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/dont-stop-going-out-or-take-exaggerated-measures-amlo/


good site for data
https://ncov2019.live/?fbclid=IwAR3FQ-iAJpX-dRN2qlDp_qdmLI5-EECwwFhZ4axtmzNC1JxzDT2DyGLLthg#Global

testing has no statistical relevance to solving the problem yet. It has to be done massively right away and in any NEW class of virus the tests will not be massive for many moons. I would assume 6 months to a year for the majority of nations.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world?

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Post by dean on Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:14 pm


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Post by dean on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:59 pm

i have read there is coronavirus in our stool in some cases even after symptoms are gone.   No test on the toilet flush or proven but here is other research to be cautious, especially considering 80-90 percent of cases are within the family.....
ok, ladies, you win, you are correct.  we surrender on this one.... put the toilet seat down and make sure you have a spray bottle of 2 percent bleach before and after.  

ok, ladies, you win, you are correct...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4692156/

Conclusion
Research suggests that toilet plume could play a contributory role in the transmission of infectious diseases. Additional research in multiple areas is warranted to assess the risks posed by toilet plume, especially within health care facilities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toilet_plume

Toilet plume
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
A toilet plume is the dispersal of microscopic particles as a result of flushing a toilet. Normal use of a toilet by healthy people is considered unlikely to be a major health risk. There is indirect evidence that specific pathogens such as norovirus or SARS coronavirus could potentially be spread by toilet aerosols, but as of 2015, no direct experimental studies had clearly demonstrated or refuted actual disease transmission from toilet aerosols. It has been hypothesized that dispersal of pathogens may be reduced by closing the toilet lid before flushing, and by using toilets with lower flush energy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075609/coronavirus-can-be-transmitted-through-faeces
Coronavirus can be transmitted through faeces, Chinese University study confirms, with experts suggesting stool tests as alternative screening tool
Some respiratory system specimens tested negative for Covid-19 but coronavirus was detected in faecal samples from all 14 patients in study
None of the urine specimens contained the virus, and it was only detected in the blood of four patients

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Post by dean on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:10 am

I copied this from a post on the Cabo Expats page.
Los Cabos has set up a “Corona Virus Hotline” for all of greater Los Cabos. If you or someone you know begin to experience symptoms of Covid-19 (fever, headache, fatigue, dry cough or trouble breathing), please call right away and they will tell you what you need to do next. English speaking Corona Virus Hotline Number: +52 612 199 5386.

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Coronavirus and viruses Empty U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Mexico

Post by dean on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:09 am


U.S. Embassy & Consulates
in Mexico
|
Global Level 4 Health Advisory


Embassy & Consulates


News & Events
Travel Restrictions Fact Sheet

https://mx.usembassy.gov/wha-press-guidance/?fbclid=IwAR0JcRYEQpwnF_LVF-B40ZK7up48bc_0vZdCH0ykvAxUcPQMgacF3_s5GoU

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Post by dean on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:54 pm

good chart showing worldwide cases deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0QJ_GD5BpCWmp0NnFXIhby2ySxP9CFzRouDoZzOjMtrtthIFsL9ypcTP0

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/20/understanding-what-works-how-some-countries-are-beating-back-the-coronavirus/

Can these techniques be applied elsewhere? Is it too late in places like the United Kingdom and the United States?
Many epidemiologists and mathematical modelers who have been plotting the possible trajectory of this pandemic think there is no choice but to try some of the serious social distancing measures other countries have taken.

But Marc Lipsitch, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said the possibility of containment — stopping spread — through rigorous tracing of all contacts of known cases is not realistic. That window has closed, he said.

“I think one thing to learn from those experiences is that what’s appropriate when an epidemic is small and mostly ascertained is not appropriate when an epidemic is large and mostly not ascertained,” he said.

“I would say put in place as intense as possible social distancing and get the messaging from the White House consistent with that,” Lipsitch said. “Right away, everywhere, with the short-term goal of trying to reduce the … demand on the health care system.”

Any universities still in session should send students home, especially those living in dormitories “which are one step away from cruise ships in terms of density and poor ventilation,” he said.

Lipsitch said time is limited to make a difference.

“The data that we just assembled from Wuhan about the timing and magnitude of the peak demand for critical care shows first that it can very quickly — even without that many people being infected compared to the whole population — exceed per capita bed capacity in the United States,” Lipsitch said.

He noted there was a four-week lag between the shutdown of Wuhan and the overwhelming of critical care units. “So if you wait till you see a problem, then you have another month of agony, at least.”

It appeared that was the kind of message Britain was not heeding.

There was a huge controversy late last week when it seemed like the country intended to simply allow enough people to become infected so that the population would develop “herd immunity.”

Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it was never the government’s plan to drive toward herd immunity; rather, there was an acknowledgment that might be what happens because the virus could be so hard to control.

“It’s not been an aim to get everyone infected as soon as possible. It’s more this really tough situation we’ve got where the options we have are probably not going to be able to fully control this in the long term,” Kucharski said.

The country has now taken a swing toward the types of early and aggressive social distancing methods other countries are trying to implement. The government is urging people with even mild symptoms to self-isolate; but Kucharski worried that message was going unheard in the din about herd immunity.

The country, he said, was trying to save some of the more difficult measures — really stringent social distancing approaches that are hard to sustain over time — for closer to when they are needed.

“It makes sense to use them, given that they’re short-term measures, use them when they’ve got the most impact,” Kucharski said. “You can’t shut down your country for months.”

Rivers suggested that was a risky approach. “I think that’s a difficult thing to time. My recommendations for the U.S. context at least, is to begin social distancing measures early,” she said.

In the United States, a tepid early response — marked by a prolonged delay in ramping up testing and a White House that initially seemed intent on playing down the scale of the threat — has given way to a war footing.

This week the White House urged Americans to embrace social distancing by not taking part in gatherings of more than 10 people. In a number of communities, restaurants are closed to all but takeout or delivery service. Some states have closed schools. The country is on edge.

But with large-scale testing capacity still coming up to speed, it remains unclear how deeply the virus has embedded itself into the country, and whether the measures people and their local, state, and national governments are trying to adopt can slow the coronavirus’ progress.

It is also unclear how long communities can sustain the dramatic lifestyle changes that appear to be needed to slow the virus’s spread.

“Right now people are approaching this if they are basically sheltering in place for … a Minneapolis blizzard, lasting two or three days. And that’s the mindset that they have. Where, in fact, we need to look at this like a coronavirus winter, where we’re only in the first weeks of what could be a long season,” warned Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.

“This could last easily many months. And we need to make our actions proportional to the risk in the community or else we run the risk of people just getting tired of them when that particular community has not seen increased transmission of the virus.”

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Post by dean on Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:03 am

The best scientific listen yet: from floyd

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/?fbclid=IwAR1uR3e7MCtXo0jyb_sKsKPd8CYnTGwNllJIoVaRDKmCCILkp9bWRGQaSkw


The best scientific read yet:

This explains a lot and is very educational. The more you know, the more you can participate in a positive manner, keeping you and your loved ones safe. (See this article online via link in comments below)
Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.  
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward....
Now, here comes this Coronavirus...it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human.
Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”.
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way that it causes great damage to human lungs.
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now!




https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/imperial-report-models-global-covid-19-coronavirus-spread-supression/

 


Significant new model of COVID-19 spread influences UK & US responses  


 
A new report, from the world’s leading epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London, is suggesting intensive active suppression, including isolation of all cases and extreme social distancing measures, may be the most effective immediate intervention to reduce mortality and healthcare demand as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread. The new data, reportedly influencing both US and UK government policy, recommends suppression measures may have to be intermittently turned on and off over the next 18 months until a vaccine is developed and mass immunity occurs

https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus

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Post by dean on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:59 am


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Coronavirus and viruses Empty This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distanci

Post by dean on Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:10 pm

This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

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Post by dean on Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:37 am

I just installed a new hand cleaning station and advise people to do the same. I will take a picture later. But the essense of it are a foot actuated water switch and a can on top of a pole that has a bottle of hand soap that has a water pipe that is actuated from the foot switch. Works great, it is before my rooms and my kitchen so you can walk up and rinse without having to go into the bathroom. all businesses should put these outside their entryways. It makes it so convenient to wash your hands. Mine uses a garden house so the sun keeps the water warm.

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Post by dean on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:56 am

with the soap and water here is what I did when I recently went shopping.  

I took an empty mustard container that has a twist dispenser on it and put soap and water in it. I actually took it with me into the store when I went shopping and cleaned my hands several times at the store and as I walked out. remember you were handing cash or a receipt that someone else handled. China was sterilizing all cash, and touching credit card buttons or atm or a pen to sign, again I would then wash my hands. It is all so simple and convenient when using soap and water. and washed the cart handle down. I keep it in my car with extra water to rinse when I am done too. and have a towel in my car. I have also used a small sprayer bottle with the soap and water. and you can cut paper towels and soak them with rubbing alcohol and put in a baggy.

all of this is so simple and easy to do.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-photos-why-you-should-wash-hands-with-soap-water-2020-3?r=MX&IR=T

Photos show why hand sanitizer doesn't work as well as soap and water to remove germs


Last edited by dean on Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Coronavirus and viruses Empty Deadly viruses are no match for plain, old soap — here’s the

Post by dean on Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:32 am

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deadly-viruses-are-no-match-for-plain-old-soap-heres-the-science-behind-it-2020-03-08?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_more_headlines

 


Deadly viruses are no match for plain, old soap — here’s the science behind it

45
Published: March 14, 2020 at 9:01 a.m. ET
By Palli Thordarson
Soap works better than alcohol and disinfectants at destroying the structure of viruses

 


 

 Why does soap work so well on the new coronavirus and, indeed, most viruses? Because it is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer.

That sounds scientific. Let me explain.

Soap dissolves the fat membrane, and the virus falls apart like a house of cards and “dies,” or rather, it becomes inactive as viruses aren’t really alive. Viruses can be active outside the body for hours, even days.

Disinfectants, or liquids, wipes, gels and creams containing alcohol (and soap) have a similar effect but are not as good as regular soap. Apart from alcohol and soap, antibacterial agents in those products don’t affect the virus structure much. Consequently, many antibacterial products are basically just an expensive version of soap in how they act on viruses. Soap is the best, but alcohol wipes are good when soap is not practical or handy, for example in office reception areas.

Soap outcompetes the interactions between the virus and the skin surface, and the virus gets detached and falls apart like a house of cards.
Supramolecular chemistry
But why, exactly, is soap so good? To explain that, I will take you through a journey of supramolecular chemistry, nanoscience and virology. I will try to explain this in generic terms, which means leaving out special chemistry terms. (I must point out that, while I am an expert in supramolecular chemistry and the assembly of nanoparticles, I am not a virologist.)
https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/03/08/Photos/ZQ/MW-IB756_pall_s_20200308090229_ZQ.jpg?uuid=10f3cb82-613d-11ea-b549-9c8e992d421e
Coronavirus and viruses MW-IB756_pall_s_20200308090229_ZQ

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Post by dean on Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:49 pm

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong?fbclid=IwAR3OG4x8uXgY6yV50UsiKeG9VLMFhPCSrdjCTf80hZdkegaBqyOi_Qv3q1I

 

[b]
How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases
The United States is more in line with Italy and Iran than Singapore and Hong Kong.
 


[b]

 Coronavirus and viruses VoKBM_number_of_confirmed_coronavirus_cases_by_days_since_100th_case

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Post by dean on Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:40 pm


I believe this does not include american citizens or residents, would check if you were passing through that way to be sure. And assume only from the listed countries where the ban is in effect, I think from China still too.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/travelers-from-europe-to-remain-in-mexico/?utm_source=fb&utm_campaign=aeromexico-passengers-us

Denied access to US, travelers from Europe to remain in Mexico
Due to coronavirus, passengers stopping in Mexico must wait 14 days before continuing

Published on Friday, March 13, 2020
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Aeroméxico passengers flying from Europe to the United States with a layover in Mexico will not be allowed to board their connecting flights, but will instead be forced to wait 14 days before continuing on to their destinations.

Beginning Friday, the United States will not allow passengers from countries in Europe’s Schengen Area to enter the country directly in an attempt to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus known as Covid-19.

The Schengen Area of the European Union includes France, Germany, Austria, Spain, Sweden, Italy and other countries in mainland Europe.



Aeroméxico had a similar policy for travelers to the United States from China, where the virus originated.

“We did not allow passengers coming from China in the last 14 days to make their connection to the United States under instruction from the [U.S.] government. Now we’re including passengers from Europe in this scheme,” said Grupo Aeroméxico security director Arturo Duhart.

The airline added that it is reinforcing its sanitation protocols on its fleet of airplanes used for international routes.

“When a plane arrives from an at-risk area, we are cleaning the whole passenger cabin with a nebulizer and we’re also doing deep cleans,” said Duhart.

There are currently 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus, up from 12 cases yesterday, but health officials say that a widespread outbreak of the virus is inevitable in the coming weeks.

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Post by dean on Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:05 pm

this is a post from a person that is not the infected.   He is a reliable source and would not have posted it unless he knew them.    They were only in Cabo.

from facebook wrote:From a friend just now “Cabo does have Corona virus but no lab facilities to test.
Karen just let me know that Paulette came back from Cabo and tested positive in Victoria and her and her husband are quarantined in North saanich near Sidney. “ Just an FYI.

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Post by dean on Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:30 pm

get ahead of the curve
Coronavirus and viruses Curve10

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Post by dean on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:21 am

from facebook wrote:I was at imss in La Paz the other day and it was crammed to the rafters. Ideal breeding ground.
Also this AND they tell you to get a flu shot in addition to washing your hands and staying inside. Bollocks! Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a phenomenon known as virus interference.”
“Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus...”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/31607599/

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Coronavirus and viruses Empty Diluting your household bleach.

Post by dean on Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:13 pm

Options include:

Diluting your household bleach.
To make a bleach solution, mix:
5 tablespoons (1/3rd cup) bleach per gallon of water
OR
4 teaspoons bleach per quart of water
Follow manufacturer’s instructions for application and proper ventilation. Check to ensure the product is not past its expiration date. Never mix household bleach with ammonia or any other cleanser. Unexpired household bleach will be effective against coronaviruses when properly diluted.

Alcohol solutions.


Last edited by dean on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:22 am; edited 2 times in total

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