data

We analyzed reports for 59,073 contacts of 5,706 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) index patients reported in South Korea during January 20–March 27, 2020. Of 10,592 household contacts, 11.8% had COVID-19. Of 48,481 nonhousehold contacts, 1.9% had COVID-19. Use of personal protective measures and social distancing reduces the likelihood of transmission.

If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said.

Summary:
A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

More “striking” evidence has emerged that the BCG vaccine given to counter TB may provide protection against Covid-19 and significantly reduce death rates in countries with high levels of vaccination.

A study of 178 countries by an Irish medical consultant working with epidemiologists at the University of Texas in Houston shows countries with vaccination programmes – including Ireland – have far fewer coronavirus cases by a factor 10, compared to where BCG programmes are no longer deployed.

This translates into a death rate up to 20-times less, according to urologist Paul Hegarty of the Mater Hospital, Dublin.

Their “correlation” study, expected to be published shortly by PLOS journal, is largely a statistical one and comes with caveats because of possibility of confounding factors. But it is more comprehensive than an initial one conducted in New York, which prompted a scaling up of clinical trials on people with Covid-19.

To reduce the possibility of error, the researchers re-evaluated cases during the course of the pandemic and made country-by-country comparisons including between Ireland and the UK, Mr Hegarty said. “We did not expect to see such a marked difference.”

“Over the 15 days, incidence of Covid-19 was 38 per million in countries with BCG vaccination whereas the incidence of Covid-19 was 358 per million in the absence of such a programme. The death rate was 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programmes and 40 per million in countries without such a programme,” he added.

Less than a month ago, Singapore was being hailed as one of the countries that had got its coronavirus response right.

ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/AFP via Getty Images People look on as the letters and symbol SG Love, lights the facade of Marina Bay Sands as message of hope amid the nations fight against COVID-19 coronavirus in Singapore on April 10, 2020.
Encouragingly for the rest of the world, the city-state seemed to have suppressed cases without imposing the restrictive lockdown measures endured by millions elsewhere.

And then the second wave hit, hard. Since March 17, Singapore's number of confirmed coronavirus cases grew from 266 to over 5,900, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County may be more than 50 times greater than the official count, according to preliminary results from a new study by the University of Southern California, which estimates that as many as 442,000 adult residents of Los Angeles County may have already been infected.

The implication, as lead USC investigator Neeraj Sood told reporters Monday, is that “the true extent of the infection in our communities” is far greater than previously known.